NYG · Bye 8
Jaxson Dart
Jaxson Dart comes off the board at 10.03 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 10.04.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated November 5, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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NFC Notes: Jaxson Dart, J.J. McCarthy, Jalen Carter, Commanders, Eagles, Giants
yardbarker.com ·
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Jaxson Dart still aiming for playoff return, if Giants make it
Yahoo Sports ·
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Let’s have a much-too-early Jaxson Dart vs. J.J. McCarthy discussion
Yahoo Sports ·
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Giants GM Joe Schoen Makes Bold Claim About Jaxson Dart, J.J. McCarthy
Yahoo Sports ·
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In Pics: Jaxson Dart and GF Marissa party out with Cam Skattebo and his partner Chloe Rodriguez as Giants QB recovers from knee injury
sportskeeda.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jaxson Dart by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jaxson Dart has averaged -4.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 16.8 | 26.6 | +9.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAR | 19.9 | 0.8 | -19.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 14.0 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB16. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB16 · ADP 124.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB16 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jaxson Dart #26 in 1QB and #13 in Superflex, QB6 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#26
QB6 · tier 10 · of 300
Superflex
#13
QB6 · tier 4 · of 307
- Last season 241.6 pts 17.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 82% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 24.2 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.03
pick 111.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.04
half of simulations take him by pick 112
Draft range
8.06 - 11.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,998 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.04 in 50% of simulations
Pick 112 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 11.09, where he is available in 15% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 10.04 50% · 11.09 15% · 12.04 7% · 13.09 1% · 14.04 1% · 15.09 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.03 and 11.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.02 | 54% |
| 10.03 | 52% |
| 10.04 | 50% |
| 10.05 | 48% |
| 10.06 | 46% |
| 10.07 | 44% |
| 10.08 | 41% |
| 10.09 | 39% |
| 10.10 | 37% |
| 10.11 | 35% |
| 10.12 | 33% |
| 11.01 | 31% |
| 11.02 | 29% |
| 11.03 | 26% |
| 11.04 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.06-8.07 | 3% | 273 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 3% | 339 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 4% | 367 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 444 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 341 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 3% | 347 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9998 simulations in which Jaxson Dart was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Jared Goff QB · DET 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 3%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Jared Goff QB · DET 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jaxson Dart was selected in 9998 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.