TB · Bye 10
Jalen McMillan
LMD WR127 rest of season · 23.8 projected Standard points
Reserve list (IR)
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 23.8 points this season, WR127. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.1 a game over 5.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 11 since the Nov. 4 board.
Rest of season
WR127
268th by projected points
Projected
23.8
rest of season, Standard
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 0% at WR
Movement
↓ 11
WR116 on Nov. 4, WR127 now
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Jalen McMillan was ruled IR.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Jalen McMillan's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 133.6 to 141.8 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Jalen McMillan has averaged -5.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 3.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 2.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 5.2 | 0.0 | -5.2 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR58. For the rest of the season LMD has him 69 spots lower, at WR127.
Preseason market: WR58 · ADP 128.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR127 −69
LMD has him 69 spots lower than his WR58 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR58 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 23.8 points this season, WR127. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.1 a game over 5.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 11 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
4.1 / game
Over 5.825 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jalen McMillan #289 in 1QB and #295 in Superflex, WR115 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#289
WR115 · tier 74 · of 300
Superflex
#295
WR115 · tier 64 · of 307
- Last season 23.9 pts 6.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 43% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.10
pick 142.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.05
half of simulations take him by pick 137
Draft range
10.11 - 15.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,473 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.05 in 60% of simulations
Pick 137 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 13.08, where he is available in 40% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 12.05 60% · 13.08 40% · 14.05 38% · 15.08 21%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.07 and 14.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.03 | 64% |
| 12.04 | 62% |
| 12.05 | 60% |
| 12.06 | 58% |
| 12.07 | 55% |
| 12.08 | 53% |
| 12.09 | 51% |
| 12.10 | 48% |
| 12.11 | 46% |
| 12.12 | 43% |
| 13.01 | 41% |
| 13.02 | 41% |
| 13.03 | 41% |
| 13.04 | 41% |
| 13.05 | 41% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.11-11.01 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.04 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.07 | 5% | 515 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 6% | 595 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 6% | 641 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 7% | 674 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 7% | 730 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 27 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 16 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | 1% | 119 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | 1% | 130 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | 2% | 175 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-15.01 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.04 | 5% | 516 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8473 simulations in which Jalen McMillan was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Cam Ward QB · TEN 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jalen McMillan was selected in 8473 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.