TB · Bye 10
Jalen McMillan
LMD WR57 for Week 3 · 5.2 projected Standard points · WR51 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.2 points this week, WR57. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 18% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 17 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR57
115th by projected points
Rest of season
WR51
98th by projected points
Projected
5.2
week 3, Standard
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 18% at WR
Movement
↑ 17
WR74 in Week 2, WR57 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+3.95 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No recent stats
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Negative-0.81 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Jalen McMillan is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Jalen McMillan's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 133.6 to 141.8 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 3.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 2.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 5.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR58. For the rest of the season LMD has him 7 spots higher, at WR51.
Preseason market: WR58 · ADP 128.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR51 +7
LMD has him 7 spots higher than his WR58 draft price.
Week 3
WR57 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR58 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR58 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 91.2 points this season, WR51. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 13% of simulated seasons. That is 5.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 26 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
5.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 13%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jalen McMillan #286 in 1QB and #292 in Superflex, WR115 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#286
WR115 · tier 74 · of 297
Superflex
#292
WR115 · tier 64 · of 303
- Last season 23.9 pts 6.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 43% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.10
pick 142.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.05
half of simulations take him by pick 137
Draft range
10.11 - 15.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,421 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.05 in 60% of simulations
Pick 137 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 13.08, where he is available in 40% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 12.05 60% · 13.08 40% · 14.05 38% · 15.08 22%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.07 and 14.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.03 | 64% |
| 12.04 | 62% |
| 12.05 | 60% |
| 12.06 | 58% |
| 12.07 | 56% |
| 12.08 | 53% |
| 12.09 | 51% |
| 12.10 | 48% |
| 12.11 | 46% |
| 12.12 | 44% |
| 13.01 | 41% |
| 13.02 | 41% |
| 13.03 | 41% |
| 13.04 | 41% |
| 13.05 | 41% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.11-11.01 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.04 | 5% | 497 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.07 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 6% | 580 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 6% | 557 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 6% | 644 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 7% | 677 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 8% | 754 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 23 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | <1% | 85 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-15.01 | 3% | 326 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.04 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8421 simulations in which Jalen McMillan was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 2%
- Cam Ward QB · TEN 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jalen McMillan was selected in 8421 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.