PIT · Bye 9
DK Metcalf
LMD WR27 for Week 3 · 7.2 projected Standard points · WR30 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.2 points this week, WR27. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 16% · Top 24: 29% of simulated weeks. Up 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR27
64th by projected points
Rest of season
WR30
69th by projected points
Projected
7.2
week 3, Standard
Top 12
16%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 29% at WR
Movement
↑ 3
WR30 in Week 2, WR27 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.60 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.18 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.15 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Steelers aren't getting WR1 production from DK Metcalf – and haven't for a while
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Why the Steelers must shift targets away from DK Metcalf
Yahoo Sports ·
-
DK Metcalf inefficient for a second straight game in loss to Patriots
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Noah Hiles: It's time for DK Metcalf to play like the player he's paid to be
arcamax.com ·
-
DK Metcalf Refuses to Dwell on Steelers’ Week 1 Struggles and Uncalled Penalties
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to DK Metcalf by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games DK Metcalf has averaged -2.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 5.6 | 4.0 | -1.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 6.4 | 2.7 | -3.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 7.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR31. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot higher, at WR30.
Preseason market: WR31 · ADP 62.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR30 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR31 draft price.
Week 3
WR27 +4
LMD has him 4 spots higher than his WR31 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR31 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 105.7 points this season, WR30. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 30% of simulated seasons. That is 7.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 14 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.3 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 30%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has DK Metcalf #88 in 1QB and #90 in Superflex, WR34 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#88
WR34 · tier 21 · of 297
Superflex
#90
WR34 · tier 16 · of 303
- Last season 157.7 pts 10.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.06
pick 66.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.06
half of simulations take him by pick 66
Draft range
5.04 - 7.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.06 in 54% of simulations
Pick 66 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 7.07, where he is available in 11% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 6.06 54% · 7.07 11% · 8.06 2% · 9.07 <1% · 10.06 <1% · 11.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.11 and 6.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.04 | 62% |
| 6.05 | 58% |
| 6.06 | 54% |
| 6.07 | 50% |
| 6.08 | 46% |
| 6.09 | 41% |
| 6.10 | 37% |
| 6.11 | 33% |
| 6.12 | 29% |
| 7.01 | 25% |
| 7.02 | 21% |
| 7.03 | 19% |
| 7.04 | 16% |
| 7.05 | 15% |
| 7.06 | 13% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.04-5.05 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 6% | 625 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 6% | 642 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 8% | 773 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 8% | 848 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 8% | 824 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 8% | 844 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 7% | 742 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 4% | 360 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 3% | 303 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which DK Metcalf was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
- Alec Pierce WR · IND 3%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
DK Metcalf was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.