PIT · Bye 9
DK Metcalf
LMD WR35 rest of season · 64.3 projected Standard points
No game this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 64.3 points this season, WR35. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 26% of simulated seasons. That is 7.1 a game over 9 remaining games. No game this week.
Rest of season
WR35
81st by projected points
Projected
64.3
rest of season, Standard
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 26% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR35 on Nov. 4
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Steelers rookie Germie Bernard drawing WR1 buzz over DK Metcalf
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Steelers Get Devastating News About The Future Of DK Metcalf In Pittsburgh
yardbarker.com ·
-
Steelers' $150 Million DK Metcalf Decision Faces Harsh Mike Tomlin Questions
yardbarker.com ·
-
Steelers Urged to Move On From DK Metcalf
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Sing it with me, 'Let it go.' Drop Zay Flowers and DK Metcalf
The New York Times ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to DK Metcalf by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games DK Metcalf has averaged -1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 5.6 | 4.0 | -1.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 6.4 | 2.7 | -3.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 7.2 | 9.1 | +1.9 |
| Wk 4 | @ CLE | 6.6 | 11.5 | +4.9 |
| Wk 5 | vs IND | 8.0 | 2.3 | -5.7 |
| Wk 6 | @ TB | 7.5 | 9.3 | +1.8 |
| Wk 7 | @ NO | 8.6 | 5.6 | -3.0 |
| Wk 8 | vs CLE | 7.6 | 0.4 | -7.2 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR31. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots lower, at WR35.
Preseason market: WR31 · ADP 62.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR35 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his WR31 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR31 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 64.3 points this season, WR35. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 26% of simulated seasons. That is 7.1 a game over 9 remaining games. No game this week.
Per game
7.1 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 26%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has DK Metcalf #88 in 1QB and #90 in Superflex, WR34 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#88
WR34 · tier 21 · of 300
Superflex
#90
WR34 · tier 16 · of 307
- Last season 157.7 pts 10.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.06
pick 66.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.06
half of simulations take him by pick 66
Draft range
5.04 - 7.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.06 in 54% of simulations
Pick 66 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 7.07, where he is available in 11% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 6.06 54% · 7.07 11% · 8.06 2% · 9.07 <1% · 10.06 <1% · 11.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.11 and 6.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.04 | 62% |
| 6.05 | 58% |
| 6.06 | 54% |
| 6.07 | 50% |
| 6.08 | 46% |
| 6.09 | 41% |
| 6.10 | 37% |
| 6.11 | 33% |
| 6.12 | 29% |
| 7.01 | 25% |
| 7.02 | 21% |
| 7.03 | 19% |
| 7.04 | 16% |
| 7.05 | 15% |
| 7.06 | 13% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.04-5.05 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 4% | 430 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 6% | 623 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 6% | 645 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 8% | 771 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 8% | 849 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 8% | 823 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 8% | 846 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 7% | 746 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 4% | 360 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which DK Metcalf was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
- Alec Pierce WR · IND 3%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
DK Metcalf was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.