LAC · Bye 7 · Rookie
Brenen Thompson
LMD WR141 for Week 3 · 2.1 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 3 fantasy ranking
We project 2.1 points this week, WR141. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
WR141
293rd by projected points
Projected
2.1
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 1% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at WR in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.43 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Slight positive+0.36 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Brenen Thompson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | — | — | 1.8 | — |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 2.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brenen Thompson #222 in 1QB and #225 in Superflex, WR93 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#222
WR93 · tier 49 · of 297 · rookie 36 of 52
Superflex
#225
WR93 · tier 42 · of 303 · rookie 37 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 105 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.10
pick 33.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.10
half of simulations take him by pick 34
Draft range
2.11 - 4.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,664 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Brenen Thompson.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.10 in 54% of simulations
Pick 34 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 4.03, where he is available in 32% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 3.10 54% · 4.03 32%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.04 and 4.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.08 | 63% |
| 3.09 | 59% |
| 3.10 | 54% |
| 3.11 | 49% |
| 3.12 | 45% |
| 4.01 | 40% |
| 4.02 | 36% |
| 4.03 | 32% |
| 4.04 | 29% |
| 4.05 | 25% |
| 4.06 | 22% |
| 4.07 | 18% |
| 4.08 | 15% |
| 4.09 | 12% |
| 4.10 | 10% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.11 | 2% | 180 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 343 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 375 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 3% | 336 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 360 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 310 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 3% | 290 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9664 simulations in which Brenen Thompson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Carson Beck QB · ARI 4%
- Nicholas Singleton RB · TEN 4%
- Nate Boerkircher TE · JAX 4%
- Eli Stowers TE · PHI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 4%
- Elijah Sarratt WR · BAL 4%
- Carson Beck QB · ARI 4%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brenen Thompson was selected in 9664 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.