BAL · Bye 13
Zay Flowers
LMD WR13 for Week 5 · 14.8 projected Full PPR points · WR13 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 14.8 points this week, WR13. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 28% · Top 24: 47% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 1 since Week 4.
Week 5
WR13
44th by projected points
Rest of season
WR13
29th by projected points
Projected
14.8
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
28%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 47% at WR
Movement
↓ 1
WR12 in Week 4, WR13 now
Should you start Zay Flowers in Week 5?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Zay Flowers WR13 for Week 5, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 47% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.23 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.96 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.20 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.76 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Limited practice for Zay Flowers
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy football Week 5 WR preview: Zay Flowers a cautious start with Lamar Jackson likely out
CBS Sports ·
-
Zay Flowers, Ravens.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Zay Flowers likely to play in Week 4
USA TODAY ·
-
Is Zay Flowers playing today? Ravens injury report for Week 5 matchup
fansided.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Zay Flowers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Zay Flowers has averaged +11.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 10.8 | 26.0 | +15.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 11.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 10.6 | 15.4 | +4.8 |
| Wk 4 | vs TEN | 10.5 | 25.8 | +15.3 |
| Wk 5 | @ ATL | 14.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR13, and for the rest of the season LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: WR13 · ADP 24.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR13 Even
Level with his WR13 draft price.
Week 5
WR13 Even
Level with his WR13 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 191.4 points this season, WR13. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 83% of simulated seasons. That is 15.1 a game over 12.926 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
15.1 / game
Over 12.926 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 83%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Zay Flowers #25 in 1QB and #33 in Superflex, WR8 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#25
WR8 · tier 10 · of 297
Superflex
#33
WR8 · tier 8 · of 303
- Last season 200.3 pts 11.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 27% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.11
pick 47.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.12
half of simulations take him by pick 48
Draft range
3.10 - 6.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.12 in 50% of simulations
Pick 48 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 5.01, where he is available in 46% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 4.12 50% · 5.01 46% · 6.12 <1% · 7.01 <1% · 8.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.05 and 5.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.10 | 58% |
| 4.11 | 54% |
| 4.12 | 50% |
| 5.01 | 46% |
| 5.02 | 42% |
| 5.03 | 37% |
| 5.04 | 34% |
| 5.05 | 30% |
| 5.06 | 27% |
| 5.07 | 24% |
| 5.08 | 21% |
| 5.09 | 18% |
| 5.10 | 16% |
| 5.11 | 14% |
| 5.12 | 12% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10-3.11 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 6% | 632 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 7% | 688 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 7% | 713 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 8% | 843 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12-5.01 | 8% | 844 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02-5.03 | 8% | 810 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04-5.05 | 7% | 666 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 6% | 578 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Zay Flowers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 3%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 3%
Usually taken just after
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
- D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Zay Flowers was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.