CAR · Bye 5
Tetairoa McMillan
LMD WR6 rest of season · 227.4 projected Full PPR points
No game this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 227.4 points this season, WR6. Top 3: 22% · Top 12: 77% · Top 24: 96% of simulated seasons. That is 17.5 a game over 13 remaining games. No game this week. Up 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Rest of season
WR6
10th by projected points
Projected
227.4
rest of season, Full PPR
Top 12
77%
Top 3: 22% · Top 24: 96% at WR
Movement
↑ 1
WR7 on Oct. 6, WR6 now
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Tetairoa McMillan wins this NFL award — and is the first Panthers receiver to do so
newsobserver.com ·
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Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after record-setting game
wsoctv.com ·
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Panthers react to NFL announcement for WR Tetairoa McMillan
bundle.app ·
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Tetairoa McMillan wins first NFC offensive player of the week award
NBC Sports ·
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NFC Notes: Tetairoa McMillan, Jalon Daniels, Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tetairoa McMillan by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Tetairoa McMillan has averaged +6.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 12.0 | 10.5 | -1.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 11.1 | 15.1 | +4.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 13.5 | 3.7 | -9.8 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 13.5 | 45.2 | +31.7 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR17. For the rest of the season LMD has him 11 spots higher, at WR6.
Preseason market: WR17 · ADP 31.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR6 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his WR17 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR17 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 227.4 points this season, WR6. Top 3: 22% · Top 12: 77% · Top 24: 96% of simulated seasons. That is 17.5 a game over 13 remaining games. No game this week. Up 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
17.5 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 22% · Top 12: 77% · Top 24: 96%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tetairoa McMillan #17 in 1QB and #25 in Superflex, WR5 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#17
WR5 · tier 8 · of 297
Superflex
#25
WR5 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 178.4 pts 10.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 26% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.01
pick 36.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.02
half of simulations take him by pick 38
Draft range
2.12 - 4.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.02 in 51% of simulations
Pick 38 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 5.11, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 4.02 51% · 5.11 <1% · 6.02 <1% · 7.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.07 and 4.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.12 | 60% |
| 4.01 | 55% |
| 4.02 | 51% |
| 4.03 | 46% |
| 4.04 | 41% |
| 4.05 | 36% |
| 4.06 | 32% |
| 4.07 | 28% |
| 4.08 | 24% |
| 4.09 | 21% |
| 4.10 | 17% |
| 4.11 | 14% |
| 4.12 | 11% |
| 5.01 | 8% |
| 5.02 | 6% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12-3.01 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02-3.03 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04-3.05 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06-3.07 | 5% | 496 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08-3.09 | 6% | 642 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 8% | 815 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 9% | 902 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 10% | 952 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 9% | 936 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 8% | 794 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 7% | 731 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 6% | 611 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 2% | 248 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Tetairoa McMillan was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 4%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 4%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tetairoa McMillan was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.