WAS · Bye 7
Terry McLaurin
LMD WR30 for Week 3 · 7.0 projected Standard points · WR37 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.0 points this week, WR30. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 28% of simulated weeks. Up 4 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR30
69th by projected points
Rest of season
WR37
81st by projected points
Projected
7.0
week 3, Standard
Top 12
14%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 28% at WR
Movement
↑ 4
WR34 in Week 2, WR30 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.23 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.43 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.18 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Commanders' Terry McLaurin reacts to lack of Week 1 targets
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Commanders’ Adam Peters discusses Terry McLaurin, Mike Sainristil and more
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Terry McLaurin held in check
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Commanders WR Stefon Diggs on his chemistry with WR Terry McLaurin
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy Football Week 1 Fades & Busts: Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson among players to consider avoiding
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Terry McLaurin by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Terry McLaurin has averaged -1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 5.3 | 1.4 | -3.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 4.4 | 5.0 | +0.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 7.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR23. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots lower, at WR37.
Preseason market: WR23 · ADP 43.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR37 −14
LMD has him 14 spots lower than his WR23 draft price.
Week 3
WR30 −7
LMD has him 7 spots lower than his WR23 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR23 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 100.0 points this season, WR37. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 21% of simulated seasons. That is 6.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 7 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 21%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Terry McLaurin #155 in 1QB and #158 in Superflex, WR63 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#155
WR63 · tier 34 · of 297
Superflex
#158
WR63 · tier 29 · of 303
- Last season 95.2 pts 9.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 23% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.01
pick 49.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.01
half of simulations take him by pick 49
Draft range
4.03 - 5.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.01 in 53% of simulations
Pick 49 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 6.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 5.01 53% · 6.12 <1% · 7.01 <1% · 8.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.09 and 5.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.11 | 65% |
| 4.12 | 59% |
| 5.01 | 53% |
| 5.02 | 48% |
| 5.03 | 43% |
| 5.04 | 38% |
| 5.05 | 33% |
| 5.06 | 29% |
| 5.07 | 25% |
| 5.08 | 21% |
| 5.09 | 17% |
| 5.10 | 14% |
| 5.11 | 12% |
| 5.12 | 10% |
| 6.01 | 8% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.03 | 1% | 145 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 2% | 185 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 6% | 605 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 2% | 212 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Terry McLaurin was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 4%
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 4%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 4%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 4%
Usually taken just after
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 4%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 4%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 4%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Terry McLaurin was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.