WAS · Bye 7
Terry McLaurin
LMD WR55 rest of season · 51.7 projected Standard points
Reserve list (IR)
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 51.7 points this season, WR55. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 9% of simulated seasons. That is 6.1 a game over 8.51 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Rest of season
WR55
119th by projected points
Projected
51.7
rest of season, Standard
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 9% at WR
Movement
↑ 2
WR57 on Nov. 4, WR55 now
LMD vs the draft market
WR55 vs WR35 -20
LMD has him WR55. The fantasy draft market has him WR35, 20 places higher.
Recent usage below his season baseline.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Terry McLaurin Injury Update: Washington Commanders Face Major Setback As Star WR Undergoes Patellar Tendon Surgery
sports.ndtv.com ·
-
Commanders GM Adam Peters shows his respect for WR Terry McLaurin
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin trusting God after season-ending injury
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Replacing Terry McLaurin and more X factors for Commanders vs. Eagles
fredericknewspost.com ·
-
When a Leader Goes Down: How the Commanders Are Coping With the Loss of Terry McLaurin
cleveland.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Terry McLaurin by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 5 completed games Terry McLaurin has averaged -0.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 5.3 | 1.4 | -3.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 4.4 | 5.0 | +0.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 6.6 | 13.7 | +7.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs IND | 3.4 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | vs NYG | 8.0 | 8.2 | +0.2 |
| Wk 6 | @ SF | 7.1 | 2.7 | -4.4 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR23. For the rest of the season LMD has him 32 spots lower, at WR55.
Preseason market: WR23 · ADP 43.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR55 −32
LMD has him 32 spots lower than his WR23 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR23 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 51.7 points this season, WR55. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 9% of simulated seasons. That is 6.1 a game over 8.51 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
6.1 / game
Over 8.51 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 9%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Terry McLaurin #155 in 1QB and #158 in Superflex, WR63 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#155
WR63 · tier 34 · of 300
Superflex
#158
WR63 · tier 29 · of 307
- Last season 95.2 pts 9.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 23% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.01
pick 49.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.01
half of simulations take him by pick 49
Draft range
4.03 - 5.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.01 in 53% of simulations
Pick 49 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 6.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 5.01 53% · 6.12 <1% · 7.01 <1% · 8.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.09 and 5.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.11 | 65% |
| 4.12 | 59% |
| 5.01 | 53% |
| 5.02 | 48% |
| 5.03 | 43% |
| 5.04 | 38% |
| 5.05 | 33% |
| 5.06 | 29% |
| 5.07 | 25% |
| 5.08 | 21% |
| 5.09 | 17% |
| 5.10 | 14% |
| 5.11 | 12% |
| 5.12 | 10% |
| 6.01 | 8% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.03 | 1% | 145 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 2% | 185 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 6% | 605 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 2% | 212 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Terry McLaurin was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 4%
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 4%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 4%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 4%
Usually taken just after
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 4%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 4%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 4%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Terry McLaurin was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.