MIN · Bye 6 · Rookie
Max Bredeson
Max Bredeson comes off the board at 3.05 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 3.05.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Max Bredeson #205 in 1QB and #207 in Superflex, RB52 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#205
RB52 · tier 44 · of 297 · rookie 28 of 52
Superflex
#207
RB52 · tier 38 · of 303 · rookie 29 of 52
- Draft capital Round 5, pick 159 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.05
pick 28.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.05
half of simulations take him by pick 29
Draft range
2.08 - 4.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,998 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.05 in 56% of simulations
Pick 29 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 4.08, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 3.05 56% · 4.08 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.01 and 3.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.03 | 68% |
| 3.04 | 62% |
| 3.05 | 56% |
| 3.06 | 49% |
| 3.07 | 43% |
| 3.08 | 37% |
| 3.09 | 30% |
| 3.10 | 24% |
| 3.11 | 19% |
| 3.12 | 15% |
| 4.01 | 11% |
| 4.02 | 8% |
| 4.03 | 6% |
| 4.04 | 5% |
| 4.05 | 3% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | 2% | 175 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 3% | 284 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 6% | 588 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 6% | 631 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 7% | 653 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 6% | 611 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 7% | 655 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 6% | 631 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 6% | 585 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9998 simulations in which Max Bredeson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Nicholas Singleton RB · TEN 5%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 5%
- Nate Boerkircher TE · JAX 4%
- Eli Stowers TE · PHI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 5%
- Nicholas Singleton RB · TEN 5%
- Eli Stowers TE · PHI 5%
- Adam Randall RB · BAL 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Max Bredeson was selected in 9998 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.