BAL · Bye 13 · Rookie
Adam Randall
Adam Randall comes off the board at 3.11 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 3.11.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Adam Randall was ruled IR.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Adam Randall #219 in 1QB and #222 in Superflex, RB58 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#219
RB58 · tier 48 · of 297 · rookie 35 of 52
Superflex
#222
RB58 · tier 41 · of 303 · rookie 36 of 52
- Draft capital Round 5, pick 174 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.11
pick 34.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.11
half of simulations take him by pick 35
Draft range
3.01 - 4.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,776 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.11 in 54% of simulations
Pick 35 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 4.02, where he is available in 37% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 3.11 54% · 4.02 37%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.06 and 4.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.09 | 64% |
| 3.10 | 59% |
| 3.11 | 54% |
| 3.12 | 48% |
| 4.01 | 42% |
| 4.02 | 37% |
| 4.03 | 32% |
| 4.04 | 28% |
| 4.05 | 24% |
| 4.06 | 20% |
| 4.07 | 17% |
| 4.08 | 14% |
| 4.09 | 11% |
| 4.10 | 8% |
| 4.11 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.01 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 287 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 343 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 6% | 557 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 371 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 336 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 309 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9776 simulations in which Adam Randall was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Nicholas Singleton RB · TEN 4%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 4%
- Max Bredeson RB · MIN 4%
- Kaytron Allen RB · WAS 4%
Usually taken just after
- Kaytron Allen RB · WAS 4%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 4%
- Carson Beck QB · ARI 4%
- Eli Stowers TE · PHI 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Adam Randall was selected in 9776 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.