GB · Bye 11
MarShawn Lloyd
LMD RB41 for Week 4 · 5.5 projected Half PPR points · RB48 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.5 points this week, RB41. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 19% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB41
161st by projected points
Rest of season
RB48
143rd by projected points
Projected
5.5
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
5%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 19% at RB
Movement
↑ 2
RB43 in Week 3, RB41 now
Should you start MarShawn Lloyd in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks MarShawn Lloyd RB41 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 19% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB41 vs RB34 -7
LMD has him RB41. The fantasy draft market has him RB34, 7 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.09 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.34 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.10 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.61 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games MarShawn Lloyd has averaged -2.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 7.6 | 3.7 | -3.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 7.0 | 7.6 | +0.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 6.5 | 2.8 | -3.7 |
| Wk 4 | @ TB | 5.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB40. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots lower, at RB48.
Preseason market: RB40 · ADP 113.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB48 −8
LMD has him 8 spots lower than his RB40 draft price.
Week 4
RB41 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his RB40 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB40 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 76.2 points this season, RB48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.4 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
5.4 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD does not currently assign MarShawn Lloyd a differentiated dynasty rank. Age 25.
The model prices him at replacement level for the next three seasons and does not separate him from the several hundred players it prices the same way, so it assigns no rank rather than an invented one.
- Last season 2.3 pts 2.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 2% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Played in 1 of his 2 seasons in the window the model reads.
- Touches 2.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.02
pick 134.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.11
half of simulations take him by pick 131
Draft range
9.12 - 15.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,968 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.11 in 57% of simulations
Pick 131 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 12.02, where he is available in 51% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 11.11 57% · 12.02 51% · 13.11 28% · 14.02 28% · 15.11 12%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.11 and 12.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.09 | 61% |
| 11.10 | 59% |
| 11.11 | 57% |
| 11.12 | 55% |
| 12.01 | 53% |
| 12.02 | 51% |
| 12.03 | 48% |
| 12.04 | 46% |
| 12.05 | 44% |
| 12.06 | 42% |
| 12.07 | 40% |
| 12.08 | 38% |
| 12.09 | 36% |
| 12.10 | 35% |
| 12.11 | 33% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.12-10.02 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.05 | 4% | 376 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.08 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.11 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.02 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 5% | 496 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 6% | 577 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 6% | 593 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 7% | 660 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 7% | 650 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 6% | 573 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 2% | 207 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 25 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 25 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 41 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | <1% | 96 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | 1% | 120 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.02 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 1% | 122 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8968 simulations in which MarShawn Lloyd was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
MarShawn Lloyd was selected in 8968 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.