DEN · Bye 10

Wil Lutz

Wil Lutz comes off the board at 15.03 on average in 14-team Half PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 14.14.

14-team Half PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulated ADP

15.03

pick 198.7 overall, on average

Median pick

14.14

half of simulations take him by pick 196

Draft range

14.12 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 5,332 of them

Filters

League format

League size 14 teams

Scoring Half PPR

QB format 1QB

Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 14.14 in 81% of simulations

Pick 196 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 15.01, where he is available in 72% of simulations.

Slot 1's remaining turns: 14.14 81% · 15.01 72%

The middle half of simulations take him between 14.13 and 15.07.

Wil Lutz still on the board
Pick	Available
14.12	95%
14.13	89%
14.14	81%
15.01	72%
15.02	70%
15.03	68%
15.04	66%
15.05	64%
15.06	62%
15.07	60%
15.08	58%
15.09	57%
15.10	55%
15.11	54%
15.12	52%
15.13	50%
15.14	48%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Wil Lutz was selected at each pick, 14.12 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in 5%, later in 5%, undrafted in 47%.

Draft position distribution for Wil Lutz
Pick	Share of simulations	Count
14.12	6%	552 of 10000 simulations
14.13	8%	778 of 10000 simulations
14.14	10%	951 of 10000 simulations
15.01	2%	217 of 10000 simulations
15.02	2%	198 of 10000 simulations
15.03	2%	189 of 10000 simulations
15.04	2%	192 of 10000 simulations
15.05	2%	210 of 10000 simulations
15.06	2%	180 of 10000 simulations
15.07	2%	184 of 10000 simulations
15.08	2%	168 of 10000 simulations
15.09	2%	173 of 10000 simulations
15.10	1%	130 of 10000 simulations
15.11	2%	171 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 5332 simulations in which Wil Lutz was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Eddy Pineiro K · SF 13%
Will Reichard K · MIN 11%
Kansas City Chiefs DST · KC 5%
Harrison Butker K · KC 4%

Usually taken just after

San Francisco 49ers DST · SF 4%
Kansas City Chiefs DST · KC 4%
Eddy Pineiro K · SF 4%
Evan McPherson K · CIN 4%

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.

Wil Lutz was selected in 5332 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.

We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model: simulation-v1.1
Generated: August 20, 2026
Player dataset: sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
Baseline: rank

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