DEN · Bye 10
Wil Lutz
Wil Lutz comes off the board at 15.03 on average in 14-team Half PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 14.14.
14-team Half PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.03
pick 198.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.14
half of simulations take him by pick 196
Draft range
14.12 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,376 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.14 in 81% of simulations
Pick 196 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 15.01, where he is available in 73% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 14.14 81% · 15.01 73%
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.13 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.12 | 95% |
| 14.13 | 89% |
| 14.14 | 81% |
| 15.01 | 73% |
| 15.02 | 71% |
| 15.03 | 69% |
| 15.04 | 67% |
| 15.05 | 64% |
| 15.06 | 62% |
| 15.07 | 60% |
| 15.08 | 58% |
| 15.09 | 57% |
| 15.10 | 55% |
| 15.11 | 53% |
| 15.12 | 52% |
| 15.13 | 50% |
| 15.14 | 48% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.12 | 6% | 609 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.13 | 8% | 792 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.14 | 8% | 835 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 218 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5376 simulations in which Wil Lutz was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 13%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 10%
- San Francisco 49ers DST · SF 4%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 4%
Usually taken just after
- San Francisco 49ers DST · SF 5%
- Kansas City Chiefs DST · KC 4%
- Evan McPherson K · CIN 4%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Wil Lutz was selected in 5376 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.