LAC · Bye 7
Justin Herbert
LMD QB21 for Week 5 · 14.1 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 5 fantasy ranking
We project 14.1 points this week, QB21. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 79% of simulated weeks. Up 8 since Week 4.
Week 5
QB21
51st by projected points
Projected
14.1
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
36%
Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 79% at QB
Movement
↑ 8
QB29 in Week 4, QB21 now
Should you start Justin Herbert in Week 5?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Justin Herbert QB21 for Week 5, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 36% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB21 vs QB15 -6
LMD has him QB21. The fantasy draft market has him QB15, 6 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.10 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.08 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.74 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.73 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
NFL Week 4 Quick Outs: What's wrong with Justin Herbert and the Chargers' offense?
The New York Times ·
-
‘He Needs to Reboot the Whole System’ — Cam Newton Says His Piece as Calls Mount for Chargers to Bench Justin Herbert
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Justin Herbert Offers Glimmer of Hope Amid Chargers’ Nightmare Start
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Vikings’ Justin Herbert Trade Buzz Gains Steam in Stunning Twist
yardbarker.com ·
-
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh gets defensive with media after Justin Herbert ‘insult’
nypost.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Justin Herbert by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Justin Herbert has averaged -3.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 16.4 | 13.3 | -3.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 16.0 | 7.9 | -8.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 14.5 | 12.7 | -1.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ SEA | 12.0 | 9.6 | -2.4 |
| Wk 5 | vs DEN | 14.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB13. This week LMD has him 8 spots lower, at QB21.
Preseason market: QB13 · ADP 103.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 5
QB21 −8
LMD has him 8 spots lower than his QB13 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Justin Herbert #36 in 1QB and #21 in Superflex, QB9 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#36
QB9 · tier 12 · of 297
Superflex
#21
QB9 · tier 6 · of 303
- Last season 286.9 pts 17.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 31.9 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.08
pick 80.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.08
half of simulations take him by pick 80
Draft range
6.02 - 9.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.08 in 51% of simulations
Pick 80 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 8.05, where he is available in 28% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 7.08 51% · 8.05 28% · 9.08 5% · 10.05 1% · 11.08 <1% · 12.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.10 and 8.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.06 | 57% |
| 7.07 | 54% |
| 7.08 | 51% |
| 7.09 | 49% |
| 7.10 | 46% |
| 7.11 | 43% |
| 7.12 | 41% |
| 8.01 | 38% |
| 8.02 | 35% |
| 8.03 | 33% |
| 8.04 | 30% |
| 8.05 | 28% |
| 8.06 | 25% |
| 8.07 | 23% |
| 8.08 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.02-6.03 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 557 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02 | 1% | 102 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Justin Herbert was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 2%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 2%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Justin Herbert was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.