PIT · Bye 9 · Rookie
Drew Allar
Drew Allar comes off the board at 4.02 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 4.04.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 4.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 6.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 9.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Drew Allar #228 in 1QB and #203 in Superflex, QB40 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#228
QB40 · tier 50 · of 297 · rookie 37 of 52
Superflex
#203
QB40 · tier 37 · of 303 · rookie 28 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 76 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.02
pick 38.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.04
half of simulations take him by pick 40
Draft range
3.04 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,338 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.04 in 59% of simulations
Pick 40 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.10 and 4.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.02 | 67% |
| 4.03 | 63% |
| 4.04 | 59% |
| 4.05 | 55% |
| 4.06 | 51% |
| 4.07 | 47% |
| 4.08 | 42% |
| 4.09 | 37% |
| 4.10 | 33% |
| 4.11 | 28% |
| 4.12 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.04 | 1% | 149 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 4% | 359 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 336 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 378 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 404 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 5% | 539 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 570 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8338 simulations in which Drew Allar was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 5%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 4%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 4%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 4%
Usually taken just after
- Max Klare TE · LAR 4%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 4%
- Reggie Virgil WR · ARI 4%
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Drew Allar was selected in 8338 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.