PIT · Bye 9
DK Metcalf
LMD WR21 for Week 5 · 12.3 projected Full PPR points · WR22 rest of season
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.3 points this week, WR21. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 38% of simulated weeks. Up 15 since Week 4.
Week 5
WR21
67th by projected points
Rest of season
WR22
43rd by projected points
Projected
12.3
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
19%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 38% at WR
Movement
↑ 15
WR36 in Week 4, WR21 now
Should you start DK Metcalf in Week 5?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks DK Metcalf WR21 for Week 5, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 38% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.15 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.07 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.27 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Steelers' Aaron Rodgers Defends The 1 Thing That Has Gotten DK Metcalf Into Painstaking Trouble
yardbarker.com ·
-
DK Metcalf 4 during the Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh PA.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
U mad, bro?: Steelers fans go into defense mode for DK Metcalf and Mike McCarthy after victory over Bengals
triblive.com ·
-
Why Aaron Rodgers isn't force-feeding DK Metcalf in Steelers offense
cumberlink.com ·
-
Steelers' DK Metcalf Is Still A Huge Concern Following Week 3 Win
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to DK Metcalf by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games DK Metcalf has averaged +0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 10.0 | 6.7 | -3.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 11.3 | 12.1 | +0.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ CLE | 10.2 | 16.5 | +6.3 |
| Wk 5 | vs IND | 12.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR32. For the rest of the season LMD has him 10 spots higher, at WR22.
Preseason market: WR32 · ADP 63.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR22 +10
LMD has him 10 spots higher than his WR32 draft price.
Week 5
WR21 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his WR32 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR32 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 159.6 points this season, WR22. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 49% of simulated seasons. That is 12.1 a game over 13 remaining games.
Per game
12.1 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 49%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has DK Metcalf #88 in 1QB and #90 in Superflex, WR34 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#88
WR34 · tier 21 · of 297
Superflex
#90
WR34 · tier 16 · of 303
- Last season 157.7 pts 10.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.12
pick 83.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.11
half of simulations take him by pick 83
Draft range
6.06 - 9.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.11 in 52% of simulations
Pick 83 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 8.02, where he is available in 43% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 7.11 52% · 8.02 43% · 9.11 4% · 10.02 3% · 11.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.01 and 8.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.09 | 57% |
| 7.10 | 54% |
| 7.11 | 52% |
| 7.12 | 49% |
| 8.01 | 46% |
| 8.02 | 43% |
| 8.03 | 40% |
| 8.04 | 38% |
| 8.05 | 35% |
| 8.06 | 32% |
| 8.07 | 30% |
| 8.08 | 27% |
| 8.09 | 25% |
| 8.10 | 23% |
| 8.11 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.06-6.07 | 4% | 380 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 4% | 407 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 5% | 472 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 6% | 571 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 587 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 6% | 553 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 450 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 3% | 327 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which DK Metcalf was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 3%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 2%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 2%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
DK Metcalf was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.