CAR · Bye 5
Darren Waller
LMD TE28 for Week 1 · 3.4 projected Standard points
In season
Week 1 fantasy ranking
We project 3.4 points this week, ranking him TE28. The middle 80% of simulated weeks falls between 0.8 to 8.4. No market priced him for this period, so the projection is statistical only. He has risen 1 place since the previous board.
Week 1
TE28
263rd by projected points
Projected
3.4
week 1, Standard
Likely range
0.8 - 8.4
the middle 80% of simulated outcomes
Movement
+1
since the previous board; positive is up
Standard scoring · Updated August 31, 2026
These rankings are generated by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings and no consensus of outside rankers is involved. Projected points and ranges are simulated outcomes from that model.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 2.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.10
half of simulations take him by pick 178
Draft range
15.08 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 245 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.10 in >99% of simulations
Pick 178 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.09 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.08 | >99% |
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | >99% |
| 15.11 | 99% |
| 15.12 | 98% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 3 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 5 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 37 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | <1% | 57 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | <1% | 58 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 245 simulations in which Darren Waller was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 4%
- Kyler Murray QB · MIN 4%
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX 4%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Sam Darnold QB · SEA 3%
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 3%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Darren Waller was selected in 245 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 3, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 3, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@7406217ff1c1d3dd
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-03)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.