IND · Bye 13
Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones comes off the board at 12.07 on average in 12-team Half PPR Superflex mock drafts, with a median of 12.02.
12-team Half PPR Superflex · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Colts QB Daniel Jones handed middling grade following Week 1 return
Yahoo Sports ·
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Who should I drop in fantasy football? Daniel Jones, KC Concepcion and more cut candidates
The New York Times ·
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Colts’ Shane Steichen Drops Honest Daniel Jones Take After Week 1 Loss
Yahoo Sports ·
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Jesse Minter Reacts to 1st Win as HC After Lamar Jackson, Ravens Blow Out Daniel Jones, Colts
Bleacher Report ·
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Ravens extend lead to 14-6 after Daniel Jones interception
NBC Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Daniel Jones by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Daniel Jones has averaged -1.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 12.7 | 9.0 | -3.7 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 11.1 | 11.4 | +0.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 14.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Daniel Jones #126 in 1QB and #108 in Superflex, QB26 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#126
QB26 · tier 28 · of 297
Superflex
#108
QB26 · tier 19 · of 303
- Last season 226.4 pts 17.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 63% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 30.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR Superflex drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.07
pick 138.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.02
half of simulations take him by pick 134
Draft range
11.03 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,547 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.02 in 54% of simulations
Pick 134 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 13.11, where he is available in 23% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 12.02 54% · 13.11 23% · 14.02 22% · 15.11 6%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.07 and 12.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.12 | 61% |
| 12.01 | 57% |
| 12.02 | 54% |
| 12.03 | 51% |
| 12.04 | 48% |
| 12.05 | 45% |
| 12.06 | 42% |
| 12.07 | 39% |
| 12.08 | 36% |
| 12.09 | 34% |
| 12.10 | 32% |
| 12.11 | 29% |
| 12.12 | 27% |
| 13.01 | 25% |
| 13.02 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.03-11.04 | 6% | 643 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 6% | 641 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 7% | 694 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 6% | 647 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 7% | 707 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 6% | 630 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 6% | 630 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 6% | 567 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 42 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 48 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 104 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 111 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | <1% | 88 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 1% | 113 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 2% | 219 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9547 simulations in which Daniel Jones was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Bryce Young QB · CAR 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
Usually taken just after
- Bryce Young QB · CAR 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR Superflex drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Daniel Jones was selected in 9547 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.