TEN · Bye 9 · Rookie
Carnell Tate
LMD WR27 rest of season · 68.2 projected Standard points
No game this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 68.2 points this season, WR27. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 33% of simulated seasons. That is 7.5 a game over 9.014 remaining games. No game this week. Down 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Rest of season
WR27
67th by projected points
Projected
68.2
rest of season, Standard
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 33% at WR
Movement
↓ 1
WR26 on Nov. 4, WR27 now
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Titans’ Carnell Tate Accomplished Feat Not Seen Since AJ Brown
newsweek.com ·
-
Carnell Tate named the offensive rookie of the month for October
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tennessee Titans' Carnell Tate named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month
Yahoo Sports ·
-
NFL Week 9 Fantasy Football OROY Rankings: Carnell Tate Leads the Pack as Jonah Coleman Surges
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Is Carnell Tate Playing Today? (Injury Update, Betting Impact for Titans vs. Bengals in NFL Week 8)
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Carnell Tate by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Carnell Tate has averaged -0.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 4.9 | 3.8 | -1.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 4.8 | 2.7 | -2.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 6.1 | 5.8 | -0.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ BAL | 6.5 | 12.5 | +6.0 |
| Wk 5 | vs HOU | 7.5 | 0.6 | -6.9 |
| Wk 6 | @ IND | 7.2 | 13.0 | +5.8 |
| Wk 7 | vs CLE | 6.8 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| Wk 8 | @ CIN | 7.0 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR36. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots higher, at WR27.
Preseason market: WR36 · ADP 73.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR27 +9
LMD has him 9 spots higher than his WR36 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR36 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 68.2 points this season, WR27. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 33% of simulated seasons. That is 7.5 a game over 9.014 remaining games. No game this week. Down 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
7.5 / game
Over 9.014 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 33%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Carnell Tate #23 in 1QB and #32 in Superflex, WR7 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 21.
1QB
#23
WR7 · tier 9 · of 300 · rookie 2 of 52
Superflex
#32
WR7 · tier 8 · of 307 · rookie 3 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 4 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.05
pick 77.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.05
half of simulations take him by pick 77
Draft range
6.01 - 8.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.05 in 52% of simulations
Pick 77 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 8.08, where he is available in 13% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 7.05 52% · 8.08 13% · 9.05 3% · 10.08 <1% · 11.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.09 and 8.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.03 | 58% |
| 7.04 | 55% |
| 7.05 | 52% |
| 7.06 | 49% |
| 7.07 | 45% |
| 7.08 | 43% |
| 7.09 | 40% |
| 7.10 | 37% |
| 7.11 | 34% |
| 7.12 | 32% |
| 8.01 | 29% |
| 8.02 | 27% |
| 8.03 | 24% |
| 8.04 | 22% |
| 8.05 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.01-6.02 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 4% | 373 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 6% | 649 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 6% | 589 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 6% | 593 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 6% | 614 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 6% | 553 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Carnell Tate was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 3%
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · HOU 3%
Usually taken just after
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · HOU 3%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 3%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 3%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Carnell Tate was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.