KC · Bye 5
Travis Kelce
LMD TE10 rest of season · 139.1 projected Full PPR points
No game this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 139.1 points this season, TE10. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 57% · Top 24: 93% of simulated seasons. That is 10.6 a game over 13 remaining games. No game this week. Down 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Rest of season
TE10
66th by projected points
Projected
139.1
rest of season, Full PPR
Top 12
57%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 93% at TE
Movement
↓ 1
TE9 on Oct. 6, TE10 now
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Celebrate Birthday in NYC With Big Win
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Taylor Swift’s Ex Joe Alwyn Reportedly Wanted Closure Before Travis Kelce Wedding
sports.ndtv.com ·
-
Travis Kelce Celebrates 37th Birthday With Taylor Swift Before Revealing His "Best News"
sports.ndtv.com ·
-
Travis Kelce brutally taunted with ‘disgusting’ Taylor Swift fan sign before Chiefs star gets last-laugh against Raiders
the-sun.com ·
-
Travis Kelce is heartbroken about Tyquan Thornton injury, despite ‘positive’ news
kansascity.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Travis Kelce by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Travis Kelce has averaged +3.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 7.5 | 10.1 | +2.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 7.7 | 25.1 | +17.4 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 12.6 | 13.9 | +1.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 11.7 | 3.5 | -8.2 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE10, and for the rest of the season LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: TE10 · ADP 108.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE10 Even
Level with his TE10 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE10 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 139.1 points this season, TE10. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 57% · Top 24: 93% of simulated seasons. That is 10.6 a game over 13 remaining games. No game this week. Down 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
10.6 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 57% · Top 24: 93%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Travis Kelce #141 in 1QB and #137 in Superflex, TE14 at his position. Age 36.
1QB
#141
TE14 · tier 31 · of 297
Superflex
#137
TE14 · tier 24 · of 303
- Last season 155.2 pts 9.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.08
pick 103.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.06
half of simulations take him by pick 102
Draft range
8.02 - 11.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,996 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.06 in 51% of simulations
Pick 102 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 10.07, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 9.06 51% · 10.07 22% · 11.06 9% · 12.07 2% · 13.06 <1% · 14.07 <1% · 15.06 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.09 and 10.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.04 | 56% |
| 9.05 | 54% |
| 9.06 | 51% |
| 9.07 | 49% |
| 9.08 | 46% |
| 9.09 | 43% |
| 9.10 | 41% |
| 9.11 | 38% |
| 9.12 | 36% |
| 10.01 | 33% |
| 10.02 | 31% |
| 10.03 | 29% |
| 10.04 | 27% |
| 10.05 | 25% |
| 10.06 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.02-8.03 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 6% | 551 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 3% | 320 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04 | <1% | 96 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9996 simulations in which Travis Kelce was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 3%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Travis Kelce was selected in 9996 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.