LAR · Bye 11
Puka Nacua
LMD WR1 for Week 5 · 20.3 projected Full PPR points · WR3 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 20.3 points this week, WR1. Top 3: 19% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 62% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 4 since Week 4.
Week 5
WR1
2nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR3
6th by projected points
Projected
20.3
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
45%
Top 3: 19% · Top 24: 62% at WR
Movement
↑ 4
WR5 in Week 4, WR1 now
Should you start Puka Nacua in Week 5?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Puka Nacua WR1 for Week 5, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 62% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.32 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.06 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.56 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.28 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy Football Trade Tips: Why it's time to deal Puka Nacua before it's too late, plus 4 players to buy
Yahoo Sports ·
-
NFC Notes: Puka Nacua, Mike Macdonald, Tyler Higbee, Rams, Seahawks
yardbarker.com ·
-
Puka Nacua shows he's still the catalyst of the Rams' offense in comeback win after injury absence
thestar.com ·
-
Puka Nacua Injury Update Sparks Major Concern for Rams
newsweek.com ·
-
Puka Nacua has a "pre-hernia"
NBC Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Puka Nacua by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Puka Nacua has averaged +2.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 19.5 | 12.4 | -7.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 18.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 14.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | @ PHI | 16.1 | 27.7 | +11.6 |
| Wk 5 | vs BUF | 20.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR1. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots lower, at WR3.
Preseason market: WR1 · ADP 3.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR3 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his WR1 draft price.
Week 5
WR1 Even
Level with his WR1 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR1 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 250.2 points this season, WR3. Top 3: 41% · Top 12: 88% · Top 24: 99% of simulated seasons. That is 19.7 a game over 12.768 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 2 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
19.7 / game
Over 12.768 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 41% · Top 12: 88% · Top 24: 99%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Puka Nacua #3 in 1QB and #6 in Superflex, WR1 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#3
WR1 · tier 2 · of 297
Superflex
#6
WR1 · tier 3 · of 303
- Last season 310.5 pts 19.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 86% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 10.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 31% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
1.05
pick 4.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
1.04
half of simulations take him by pick 4
Draft range
1.01 - 1.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.04 in 58% of simulations
Pick 4 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 2.09, where he is available in 0% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 1.04 58% · 2.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.02 and 1.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.02 | 85% |
| 1.03 | 70% |
| 1.04 | 58% |
| 1.05 | 47% |
| 1.06 | 35% |
| 1.07 | 26% |
| 1.08 | 18% |
| 1.09 | 12% |
| 1.10 | 7% |
| 1.11 | 4% |
| 1.12 | 2% |
| 2.01 | <1% |
| 2.02 | <1% |
| 2.03 | <1% |
| 2.04 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 15% | 1475 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.02 | 15% | 1528 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.03 | 12% | 1194 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.04 | 11% | 1117 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 12% | 1155 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 10% | 965 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 8% | 797 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 6% | 580 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Puka Nacua was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 17%
- Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 14%
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 12%
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 8%
Usually taken just after
- Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 15%
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 13%
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 12%
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 12%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Puka Nacua was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.