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LAR · Bye 11

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford comes off the board at 12.03 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 11.11.

12-team Half PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Matthew Stafford by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Matthew Stafford has averaged +1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Matthew Stafford, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs SF 15.6 4.1 -11.5
Wk 2 vs NYG 13.5 27.0 +13.5
Wk 3 @ DEN 16.1 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at QB6. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.

Preseason market: QB6 · ADP 70.2

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.

This week

Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.

Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

QB6 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Matthew Stafford #55 in 1QB and #29 in Superflex, QB13 at his position. Age 38.

1QB

#55

QB13 · tier 15 · of 297

Superflex

#29

QB13 · tier 7 · of 303

  • Last season 350.4 pts 20.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 34.2 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

12.03

pick 134.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

11.11

half of simulations take him by pick 131

Draft range

10.07 - 15.02

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,279 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR also published: Full PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft also published: Dynasty

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 11.11 in 54% of simulations

Pick 131 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 12.02, where he is available in 47% of simulations.

Slot 11's remaining turns: 11.11 54% · 12.02 47% · 13.11 23% · 14.02 23% · 15.11 9%

The middle half of simulations take him between 11.01 and 12.09.

Matthew Stafford still on the board
PickAvailable
11.09 59%
11.10 56%
11.11 54%
11.12 52%
12.01 49%
12.02 47%
12.03 45%
12.04 42%
12.05 40%
12.06 38%
12.07 36%
12.08 34%
12.09 32%
12.10 30%
12.11 28%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Matthew Stafford was selected at each pick, 10.07-10.09 through 15.01-15.02. He goes earlier than this window in 9%, later in 9%, undrafted in 7%.
Draft position distribution for Matthew Stafford
PickShare of simulationsCount
10.07-10.096%612 of 10000 simulations
10.10-10.127%701 of 10000 simulations
11.01-11.037%695 of 10000 simulations
11.04-11.067%743 of 10000 simulations
11.07-11.097%707 of 10000 simulations
11.10-11.127%734 of 10000 simulations
12.01-12.037%711 of 10000 simulations
12.04-12.066%631 of 10000 simulations
12.07-12.096%581 of 10000 simulations
12.10-12.126%572 of 10000 simulations
13.01-13.03<1%22 of 10000 simulations
13.04-13.06<1%17 of 10000 simulations
13.07-13.09<1%30 of 10000 simulations
13.10-13.12<1%46 of 10000 simulations
14.01-14.03<1%93 of 10000 simulations
14.04-14.06<1%97 of 10000 simulations
14.07-14.09<1%98 of 10000 simulations
14.10-14.122%156 of 10000 simulations
15.01-15.022%217 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9279 simulations in which Matthew Stafford was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Matthew Stafford was selected in 9279 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.