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WR

IND · Bye 13

Josh Downs

LMD WR28 for Week 5 · 11.4 projected Full PPR points · WR27 rest of season

Regular season

Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 11.4 points this week, WR28. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 33% of simulated weeks. Down 9 since Week 4.

Week 5

WR28

83rd by projected points

Rest of season

WR27

54th by projected points

Projected

11.4

week 5, Full PPR

Top 12

15%

Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 33% at WR

Movement

↓ 9

WR19 in Week 4, WR28 now

Should you start Josh Downs in Week 5?

Borderline

It is close. LMD ranks Josh Downs WR28 for Week 5, just outside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 33% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

LMD vs the draft market

WR28 vs WR42 +14

LMD has him WR28. The fantasy draft market has him WR42, 14 places lower.

Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Josh Downs by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 4 completed games Josh Downs has averaged +0.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Josh Downs, Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs BAL 6.0 5.7 -0.3
Wk 2 @ KC 5.0 14.2 +9.2
Wk 3 vs HOU 11.1 12.7 +1.6
Wk 4 @ WAS 14.4 4.6 -9.8
Wk 5 @ PIT 11.4 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at WR44. For the rest of the season LMD has him 17 spots higher, at WR27.

Preseason market: WR44 · ADP 94.8

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

WR27 +17

LMD has him 17 spots higher than his WR44 draft price.

Week 5

WR28 +16

LMD has him 16 spots higher than his WR44 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

WR44 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 150.5 points this season, WR27. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 36% of simulated seasons. That is 11.6 a game over 13 remaining games. Up 10 since the Oct. 6 board.

Per game

11.6 / game

Over 13 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 36%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

broad

Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Josh Downs #115 in 1QB and #120 in Superflex, WR49 at his position. Age 25.

1QB

#115

WR49 · tier 26 · of 297

Superflex

#120

WR49 · tier 21 · of 303

  • Last season 109.4 pts 6.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 6.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

11.04

pick 124.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

11.02

half of simulations take him by pick 122

Draft range

9.11 - 12.09

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,932 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 11.02 in 53% of simulations

Pick 122 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 12.11, where he is available in 9% of simulations.

Slot 2's remaining turns: 11.02 53% · 12.11 9% · 13.02 7% · 14.11 4% · 15.02 3%

The middle half of simulations take him between 10.05 and 11.12.

Josh Downs still on the board
PickAvailable
10.12 58%
11.01 55%
11.02 53%
11.03 50%
11.04 47%
11.05 44%
11.06 42%
11.07 39%
11.08 36%
11.09 34%
11.10 31%
11.11 29%
11.12 27%
12.01 25%
12.02 23%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Josh Downs was selected at each pick, 9.11-9.12 through 12.09. He goes earlier than this window in 9%, later in 10%, undrafted in <1%.
Draft position distribution for Josh Downs
PickShare of simulationsCount
9.11-9.125%473 of 10000 simulations
10.01-10.025%521 of 10000 simulations
10.03-10.045%531 of 10000 simulations
10.05-10.065%527 of 10000 simulations
10.07-10.085%506 of 10000 simulations
10.09-10.105%510 of 10000 simulations
10.11-10.125%516 of 10000 simulations
11.01-11.025%546 of 10000 simulations
11.03-11.046%550 of 10000 simulations
11.05-11.065%543 of 10000 simulations
11.07-11.085%496 of 10000 simulations
11.09-11.105%469 of 10000 simulations
11.11-11.124%402 of 10000 simulations
12.01-12.024%405 of 10000 simulations
12.03-12.044%386 of 10000 simulations
12.05-12.063%289 of 10000 simulations
12.07-12.083%279 of 10000 simulations
12.091%118 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9932 simulations in which Josh Downs was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Josh Downs was selected in 9932 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 8, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.