GB · Bye 11
Jayden Reed
LMD WR63 for Week 3 · 4.9 projected Standard points · WR74 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.9 points this week, WR63. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 16% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 18 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR63
125th by projected points
Rest of season
WR74
139th by projected points
Projected
4.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
7%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 16% at WR
Movement
↓ 18
WR45 in Week 2, WR63 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.03 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.33 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Packers Get Encouraging Update on Top WR Jayden Reed After Scary Injury vs Jets
newsweek.com ·
-
Jayden Reed misses practice Monday
Yahoo Sports ·
-
No timetable for Jayden Reed
USA TODAY ·
-
Jayden Reed remains in New Jersey, being evaluated after back injury
NBC Sports ·
-
Green Bay Packers: Jayden Reed posts message to fans after suffering scary injury in 20-17 victory
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jayden Reed by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jayden Reed has averaged -3.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 4.4 | 2.0 | -2.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 4.4 | 0.4 | -4.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 4.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR41. For the rest of the season LMD has him 33 spots lower, at WR74.
Preseason market: WR41 · ADP 83.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR74 −33
LMD has him 33 spots lower than his WR41 draft price.
Week 3
WR63 −22
LMD has him 22 spots lower than his WR41 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR41 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 73.4 points this season, WR74. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 5.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 35 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
5.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jayden Reed #195 in 1QB and #201 in Superflex, WR86 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#195
WR86 · tier 43 · of 297
Superflex
#201
WR86 · tier 37 · of 303
- Last season 39.0 pts 7.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 64% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.08
pick 92.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.09
half of simulations take him by pick 93
Draft range
6.11 - 10.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.09 in 51% of simulations
Pick 93 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 9.04, where he is available in 34% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 8.09 51% · 9.04 34% · 10.09 6% · 11.04 2% · 12.09 <1% · 13.04 <1% · 14.09 <1% · 15.04 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.09 and 9.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.07 | 56% |
| 8.08 | 53% |
| 8.09 | 51% |
| 8.10 | 48% |
| 8.11 | 46% |
| 8.12 | 44% |
| 9.01 | 41% |
| 9.02 | 38% |
| 9.03 | 36% |
| 9.04 | 34% |
| 9.05 | 31% |
| 9.06 | 29% |
| 9.07 | 27% |
| 9.08 | 25% |
| 9.09 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.11-6.12 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 3% | 260 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 3% | 293 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 3% | 298 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 384 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 3% | 326 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 3% | 307 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 3% | 260 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jayden Reed was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 2%
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Michael Pittman WR · PIT 2%
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jayden Reed was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.