WAS · Bye 7
Jayden Daniels
LMD QB7 for Week 5 · 16.5 projected Full PPR points
Questionable
In season
Week 5 fantasy ranking
We project 16.5 points this week, QB7. Top 3: 15% · Top 12: 44% · Top 24: 77% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 5
QB7
21st by projected points
Projected
16.5
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
44%
Top 3: 15% · Top 24: 77% at QB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at QB in Week 4
Should you start Jayden Daniels in Week 5?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jayden Daniels QB7 for Week 5, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 44% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.22 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.36 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Negative-0.87 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+1.10 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.61 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Jayden Daniels fully takes part in practice
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels working to ‘embrace the brace’ in return to action
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Commanders focusing on ways Jayden Daniels can protect himself as he prepares for return to field
news-gazette.com ·
-
Commanders Get Promising Jayden Daniels News Days Before Giants Game
newsweek.com ·
-
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels primed for miraculous return... three weeks after gruesome injury that made Tom Brady curse live on-air
dailymail.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jayden Daniels by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jayden Daniels has averaged -3.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 18.2 | 17.7 | -0.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 21.9 | 14.7 | -7.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 15.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs IND | 14.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | vs NYG | 16.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB7, and this week LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: QB7 · ADP 75.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 5
QB7 Even
Level with his QB7 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB7 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jayden Daniels #104 in 1QB and #84 in Superflex, QB22 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#104
QB22 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#84
QB22 · tier 15 · of 303
- Last season 114.3 pts 16.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 63% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 27.4 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.08
pick 55.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.08
half of simulations take him by pick 56
Draft range
4.05 - 6.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.08 in 52% of simulations
Pick 56 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 6.05, where he is available in 21% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 5.08 52% · 6.05 21% · 7.08 <1% · 8.05 <1% · 9.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.01 and 6.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.06 | 59% |
| 5.07 | 56% |
| 5.08 | 52% |
| 5.09 | 48% |
| 5.10 | 45% |
| 5.11 | 41% |
| 5.12 | 37% |
| 6.01 | 34% |
| 6.02 | 31% |
| 6.03 | 27% |
| 6.04 | 25% |
| 6.05 | 21% |
| 6.06 | 19% |
| 6.07 | 16% |
| 6.08 | 14% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.05-4.06 | 3% | 333 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 7% | 655 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 7% | 651 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 7% | 695 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 7% | 721 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 7% | 731 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 7% | 730 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 6% | 626 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 6% | 617 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09 | 2% | 192 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jayden Daniels was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Caleb Williams QB · CHI 4%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
Usually taken just after
- Caleb Williams QB · CHI 4%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jayden Daniels was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.