ARI · Bye 14 · Rookie
Carson Beck
Carson Beck comes off the board at 15.02 on average in 12-team Half PPR Superflex Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 15.02.
12-team Half PPR Superflex Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Carson Beck is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Arizona Cardinals Insider Gives Injury Verdict on Jeremiyah Love, Carson Beck
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Carson Beck by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAC | 5.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs SEA | 6.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ SF | 6.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Carson Beck #209 in 1QB and #184 in Superflex, QB37 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#209
QB37 · tier 46 · of 297 · rookie 31 of 52
Superflex
#184
QB37 · tier 34 · of 303 · rookie 22 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 65 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR Superflex Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.02
pick 170.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.02
half of simulations take him by pick 170
Draft range
14.07 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,960 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.02 in 82% of simulations
Pick 170 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.10 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.12 | 86% |
| 15.01 | 84% |
| 15.02 | 82% |
| 15.03 | 80% |
| 15.04 | 78% |
| 15.05 | 76% |
| 15.06 | 74% |
| 15.07 | 72% |
| 15.08 | 70% |
| 15.09 | 68% |
| 15.10 | 66% |
| 15.11 | 64% |
| 15.12 | 62% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.07 | 2% | 194 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 194 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 200 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3960 simulations in which Carson Beck was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 3%
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Chris Brazzell II WR · CAR 3%
- Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR Superflex Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Carson Beck was selected in 3960 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.