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QB

PIT · Bye 9

Aaron Rodgers

LMD QB19 for Week 5 · 14.6 projected Half PPR points

In season

Week 5 fantasy ranking

We project 14.6 points this week, QB19. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 80% of simulated weeks. Up 8 since Week 4.

Week 5

QB19

29th by projected points

Projected

14.6

week 5, Half PPR

Top 12

39%

Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 80% at QB

Movement

↑ 8

QB27 in Week 4, QB19 now

Should you start Aaron Rodgers in Week 5?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Aaron Rodgers QB19 for Week 5, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 39% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Half PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All QB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Aaron Rodgers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 4 completed games Aaron Rodgers has averaged +2.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Aaron Rodgers, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs ATL 11.3 12.5 +1.2
Wk 2 @ NE 11.9 4.0 -7.9
Wk 3 vs CIN 12.7 22.7 +10.0
Wk 4 @ CLE 13.5 22.0 +8.5
Wk 5 vs IND 14.6 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Aaron Rodgers #178 in 1QB and #164 in Superflex, QB34 at his position. Age 42.

1QB

#178

QB34 · tier 40 · of 297

Superflex

#164

QB34 · tier 30 · of 303

  • Last season 226.6 pts 14.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 26.1 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

14.12

pick 168.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

14.12

half of simulations take him by pick 168

Draft range

14.02 - 15.10

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 4,233 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Dynasty

Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Aaron Rodgers.

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 14.12 in 80% of simulations

Pick 168 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 15.01, where he is available in 79% of simulations.

Slot 1's remaining turns: 14.12 80% · 15.01 79%

The middle half of simulations take him between 14.06 and 15.06.

Aaron Rodgers still on the board
PickAvailable
14.10 84%
14.11 82%
14.12 80%
15.01 79%
15.02 77%
15.03 75%
15.04 74%
15.05 72%
15.06 70%
15.07 68%
15.08 66%
15.09 64%
15.10 63%
15.11 61%
15.12 59%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Aaron Rodgers was selected at each pick, 14.02 through 15.10. He goes earlier than this window in 4%, later in 3%, undrafted in 58%.
Draft position distribution for Aaron Rodgers
PickShare of simulationsCount
14.021%139 of 10000 simulations
14.032%152 of 10000 simulations
14.041%136 of 10000 simulations
14.052%152 of 10000 simulations
14.062%163 of 10000 simulations
14.071%146 of 10000 simulations
14.081%146 of 10000 simulations
14.092%171 of 10000 simulations
14.102%194 of 10000 simulations
14.112%187 of 10000 simulations
14.122%168 of 10000 simulations
15.012%177 of 10000 simulations
15.022%156 of 10000 simulations
15.032%166 of 10000 simulations
15.042%199 of 10000 simulations
15.052%180 of 10000 simulations
15.062%166 of 10000 simulations
15.072%184 of 10000 simulations
15.082%186 of 10000 simulations
15.092%166 of 10000 simulations
15.102%189 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 4233 simulations in which Aaron Rodgers was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Aaron Rodgers was selected in 4233 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 8, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.