BUF · Bye 7
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills comes off the board at 14.02 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 14.01.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
14.02
pick 158.4 overall, on average
Median pick
14.01
half of simulations take him by pick 157
Draft range
13.09 - 14.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,958 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.01 in 57% of simulations
Pick 157 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 15.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 14.01 57% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 13.11 and 14.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.11 | 78% |
| 13.12 | 67% |
| 14.01 | 57% |
| 14.02 | 49% |
| 14.03 | 43% |
| 14.04 | 37% |
| 14.05 | 30% |
| 14.06 | 24% |
| 14.07 | 19% |
| 14.08 | 15% |
| 14.09 | 11% |
| 14.10 | 9% |
| 14.11 | 7% |
| 14.12 | 5% |
| 15.01 | 3% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.09 | 7% | 728 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10 | 9% | 915 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11 | 10% | 1030 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12 | 11% | 1082 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | 7% | 749 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | 7% | 650 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | 6% | 602 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | 6% | 611 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | 6% | 607 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9958 simulations in which Buffalo Bills was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Pittsburgh Steelers DST · PIT 15%
- Minnesota Vikings DST · MIN 10%
- Detroit Lions DST · DET 6%
- Cam Little K · JAX 5%
Usually taken just after
- Detroit Lions DST · DET 11%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 8%
- Pittsburgh Steelers DST · PIT 7%
- Cam Little K · JAX 6%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Buffalo Bills was selected in 9958 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
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Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.