BUF · Bye 7
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills comes off the board at 14.03 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 14.01.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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ADP UPDATE
Buffalo Bills's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 165.0 to 174.4 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.03
pick 158.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.01
half of simulations take him by pick 157
Draft range
13.09 - 14.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,968 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.01 in 56% of simulations
Pick 157 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 15.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 14.01 56% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 13.11 and 14.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.11 | 78% |
| 13.12 | 67% |
| 14.01 | 56% |
| 14.02 | 50% |
| 14.03 | 43% |
| 14.04 | 38% |
| 14.05 | 32% |
| 14.06 | 26% |
| 14.07 | 20% |
| 14.08 | 16% |
| 14.09 | 12% |
| 14.10 | 9% |
| 14.11 | 7% |
| 14.12 | 5% |
| 15.01 | 3% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.09 | 7% | 704 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10 | 9% | 916 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11 | 11% | 1101 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12 | 11% | 1093 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | 7% | 664 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | 6% | 649 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | 6% | 551 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | 6% | 598 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | 6% | 564 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9968 simulations in which Buffalo Bills was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Pittsburgh Steelers DST · PIT 16%
- Minnesota Vikings DST · MIN 10%
- Detroit Lions DST · DET 6%
- Houston Texans DST · HOU 5%
Usually taken just after
- Detroit Lions DST · DET 12%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 7%
- Pittsburgh Steelers DST · PIT 7%
- Cam Little K · JAX 6%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Buffalo Bills was selected in 9968 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
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Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.