DET · Bye 6
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions comes off the board at 14.05 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 14.05.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.05
pick 161.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.05
half of simulations take him by pick 161
Draft range
13.11 - 14.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,827 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.05 in 52% of simulations
Pick 161 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 15.08, where he is available in 3% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 14.05 52% · 15.08 3%
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.01 and 14.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.03 | 64% |
| 14.04 | 58% |
| 14.05 | 52% |
| 14.06 | 45% |
| 14.07 | 38% |
| 14.08 | 31% |
| 14.09 | 26% |
| 14.10 | 21% |
| 14.11 | 17% |
| 14.12 | 14% |
| 15.01 | 9% |
| 15.02 | 7% |
| 15.03 | 6% |
| 15.04 | 6% |
| 15.05 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.11 | 7% | 684 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12 | 9% | 862 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | 7% | 657 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | 6% | 609 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | 6% | 648 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | 7% | 682 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | 7% | 684 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 7% | 679 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 6% | 560 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 4% | 389 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9827 simulations in which Detroit Lions was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Buffalo Bills DST · BUF 12%
- Pittsburgh Steelers DST · PIT 9%
- Tyler Loop K · BAL 5%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 5%
Usually taken just after
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 10%
- Buffalo Bills DST · BUF 6%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 5%
- Cam Little K · JAX 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Detroit Lions was selected in 9827 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.