LMD Research
How often a top-12 WR week becomes a top-12 WR season
27 regular seasons of weekly finishes, and what one big week is worth.
Published · Standard scoring · 27 seasons (1999–2025)
The question
A receiver posts a huge Sunday and the question starts: is he a WR1?
Of all the weeks a receiver finished top 12 at his position, how many belonged to a receiver who finished the regular season top 12?
The answer
Standard
33.9%
1,905 of 5,620 top-12 weeks
Half-PPR
35.1%
1,971 of 5,615 top-12 weeks
PPR
36.6%
2,049 of 5,598 top-12 weeks
In Standard scoring, 33.9% of top-12 WR weeks since 1999 (1,905 of 5,620) belonged to a receiver who finished that season top 12.
Those are weeks, not players. 2,145 receiver-seasons produced them, and only 324 receiver-seasons finished top 12. A receiver who was top 12 all year contributes many weeks; a one-week wonder contributes one.
The finding
One top-12 week isn't strong evidence, whenever it comes
A top-12 week in December ought to mean more than one in September. It does not.
Each point pools that week's top-12 finishes from all 27 seasons. Week 18, which only 5 seasons have, is in the table below.
The rate ranges from 27.4% (week 17) to 38.3% (week 10). The first six weeks average 31.9%, the last six 34.5%.
The comparison
Cumulative rank is much stronger evidence
The second curve counts receivers who are top 12 on cumulative points through a given week, and how often they finish the season there.
The cumulative curve reaches 100% at each season's final week, when the standing is the season result. It reads 97.2% at week 17 because 5 of the 27 seasons ran to week 18.
In week 1 the two curves measure the same thing and both start at 30.1%. Then they separate. By week 4, 52.1%; by week 8, 64.5%; by week 12, 77.8%.
One top-12 week is one game. Being top 12 on the season so far is every game up to that point.
Limits
What this doesn't cover
This is a count of what 27 regular seasons did, not a forecast about anyone. A player's role, health and offence aren't in these numbers; LMD's weekly receiver rankings cover that part.
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Underlying data
The numbers
Every week, both curves, with sample sizes
| Week | One week | Through wk | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30.1% | 30.1% | 27 |
| 2 | 32.4% | 41.5% | 27 |
| 3 | 33.0% | 47.5% | 27 |
| 4 | 32.3% | 52.1% | 27 |
| 5 | 32.2% | 56.3% | 27 |
| 6 | 31.4% | 57.8% | 27 |
| 7 | 35.9% | 61.4% | 27 |
| 8 | 34.1% | 64.5% | 27 |
| 9 | 32.9% | 66.6% | 27 |
| 10 | 38.3% | 71.7% | 27 |
| 11 | 36.8% | 75.7% | 27 |
| 12 | 36.0% | 77.8% | 27 |
| 13 | 38.0% | 82.4% | 27 |
| 14 | 35.5% | 85.2% | 27 |
| 15 | 33.5% | 88.3% | 27 |
| 16 | 36.5% | 89.5% | 27 |
| 17 | 27.4% | 97.2% | 27 |
| 18 | 32.8% | 100.0% | 5 |
"One week" is the share of that week's top-12 finishes belonging to a receiver who finished the season top 12. "Through wk" is the share of receivers top 12 on cumulative points at that point who finished the season there. "Seasons" is how many seasons contain the week.
How this was measured
Methodology
Data
Weekly player statistics from nflverse, 1999–2025: 150,396 regular-season player-weeks. Playoff games are left out because most teams don't play in them.
Scoring
LMD's fantasy scoring table, the same one the weekly rankings use, in standard, half-PPR and PPR.
Ranking and ties
Receivers are ranked against receivers only, and a player's position is fixed for the season. Ties share a place, so two receivers tied for 12th both make the cut. That is why the weekly samples run slightly above 12 per season.
Who is in a week
Every receiver who appeared that week. A receiver who didn't appear (bye, injury, scratch) has no weekly rank. He is left out, not ranked last.
Schedule length
Weeks 1–17 exist in all 27 seasons. Week 18 exists in 5, so it is in the table with its own sample size and off the charts.
No minimum games
There is no games-played minimum. One couldn't change who finishes a season top 12; it would only shrink the population.
What is excluded
Kick and punt return touchdowns, which many leagues score and this table doesn't. Counting them at six points moves the headline from 33.9% to 33.9%.
Provenance
Every figure is counted from one dataset, built offline by data/fantasy-history/engine.ts. The single-week curve is computed two independent ways, and the page isn't published unless they agree week for week. Statistics from nflverse (nflverse-data), CC BY 4.0.