LAR · Bye 11 · Rookie
Matthew Caldwell
Matthew Caldwell comes off the board at 5.01 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 5.03.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
5.01
pick 49.5 overall, on average
Median pick
5.03
half of simulations take him by pick 51
Draft range
4.02 - 5.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,872 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.03 in 71% of simulations
Pick 51 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.08 and 5.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.01 | 76% |
| 5.02 | 74% |
| 5.03 | 71% |
| 5.04 | 69% |
| 5.05 | 66% |
| 5.06 | 63% |
| 5.07 | 60% |
| 5.08 | 57% |
| 5.09 | 54% |
| 5.10 | 51% |
| 5.11 | 48% |
| 5.12 | 44% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.02 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 1% | 128 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 1% | 123 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 2% | 151 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 1% | 140 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 2% | 153 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 2% | 200 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 2% | 249 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 2% | 237 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 3% | 293 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5872 simulations in which Matthew Caldwell was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Athan Kaliakmanis QB · WAS 3%
- Joe Fagnano QB · BAL 3%
- Behren Morton QB · NE 3%
- Jalon Daniels QB · TB 3%
Usually taken just after
- Joe Fagnano QB · BAL 3%
- Ty Simpson QB · LAR 3%
- Athan Kaliakmanis QB · WAS 3%
- Carson Beck QB · ARI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Matthew Caldwell was selected in 5872 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.