DEN · Bye 10 · Rookie
Justin Joly
Justin Joly comes off the board at 4.09 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 4.10.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
4.09
pick 45.4 overall, on average
Median pick
4.10
half of simulations take him by pick 46
Draft range
3.09 - 5.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,938 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.10 in 62% of simulations
Pick 46 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 5.03, where he is available in 46% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 4.10 62% · 5.03 46%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.04 and 5.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.08 | 69% |
| 4.09 | 65% |
| 4.10 | 62% |
| 4.11 | 59% |
| 4.12 | 55% |
| 5.01 | 52% |
| 5.02 | 49% |
| 5.03 | 46% |
| 5.04 | 42% |
| 5.05 | 40% |
| 5.06 | 37% |
| 5.07 | 34% |
| 5.08 | 32% |
| 5.09 | 29% |
| 5.10 | 27% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.09-3.10 | 3% | 298 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11-3.12 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01-4.02 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03-4.04 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05-4.06 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 7% | 689 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 7% | 671 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 7% | 664 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 6% | 637 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 6% | 572 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 6% | 553 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7938 simulations in which Justin Joly was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jack Endries TE · CIN 4%
- Hayden Large TE · CHI 3%
- Eli Raridon TE · NE 3%
- Dan Villari TE · LAR 3%
Usually taken just after
- Hayden Large TE · CHI 3%
- Jack Endries TE · CIN 3%
- Eli Raridon TE · NE 3%
- Robert Henry RB · WAS 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Justin Joly was selected in 7938 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.